Economic System

The Polling Disaster of 2020

As the 2016 presidential election drew near, it was clear that something was amiss with the polls. The contest felt tighter than the polls said, and Joe Biden’s substantial advantage in the polls appeared to be less solid than the polls suggested. Pollsters appeared to be on their way to underestimating Donald Trump’s vote, just as they did in 2016. That didn’t mean Trump was genuinely ahead of the pack or that he’d win – he didn’t – but it did indicate that the election was closer than the polls suggested.

Now it appears that my intuition was correct. And …

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